Commentary: There’s time left, but the M’s numbers point to anything but a magical finish this year

I’ve stayed away from saying too much about the Mariners this season, because I wanted to let things settle in. No jumping to conclusions, especially after the amazing summer and fall last year.

But I will say this: dig into the numbers, and the M’s are in serious trouble.

Now, big picture, at 29-30 the Mariners are actually five wins ahead of last year’s pace through 59 games. They’re nine and a half games back of first place in the division, and they were nine games back at the same point last year. Conventional wisdom might say, "hey, lightning can strike twice! They have more than enough time to turn things around." 

I’m not disputing that at all. But I am arguing that these last two series – against the Yankees and Rangers – give everyone reason to panic.

Not only did the Mariners lose five of six games to those teams, they were outscored by a combined 50-16 in those games. Most of them weren’t even close. And it gets me to the bigger picture about the M’s performance against teams with winning records this season. 

The Mariners are 10-20 against winning teams this year. 10-20. That’s one win for every three games played against a team with a winning record – or 33 percent. 

The problem is that 65 of their final 103 games are against teams with winning records.

Which means the likelihood of a magical summer run right now is pretty bleak. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but I am saying that frustration is entirely warranted, now that we’re into the month of June and there have been very few signs that this team can consistently beat the better teams in baseball. 

Success is a double-edged sword. They made the playoffs last year, which becomes the bare minimum of expectations going forward. Everyone inside that front office knows that. 

And while it’s encouraging that Julio Rodriguez has started to turn things around, and Jarred Kelenic is finally surviving at the big league level, can we look at the glaring numbers that fall right on the front office?

Kolten Wong is hitting .159 this season and has looked anything like the future at second base. And even worse, Mariners designated hitters were hitting a combined .150 heading into today’s game – the worst in all of baseball. And it’s now worse, because Mike Ford went 0-for-3 today. 

What’s even more maddening is that the Mariners were baseball’s most profitable team in 2022, clearing $84 million in annual operations last season, according to Forbes. And yet, no money seemingly went to finding a capable designated hitter or a second baseman who could hit. 

Again, I’d give anything for all these guys to get their act together and find that winning chemistry that made last season so special. It was an incredible run. But the numbers I’m seeing so far – and the road ahead to get there – paint a very different picture. 

And if that holds true, there’s a lot of blame to go around. I’ll let you decide where it starts.